What is the likelihood that countries other than China will see an EB-5 retrogression in the near future?

Are EB-5 agents warning potential investors about a possible EB-5 retrogression in order to get them to invest sooner, or is it a real possibility for applicants from Vietnam and India?

When it comes to determining if other countries will see an EB-5 retrogression, it’s difficult to say with certainty if it will happen. However, in an unusual move, the U.S. Department of State Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division Chief, Charlie Oppenheim, made a prediction that Vietnam may see an EB-5 retrogression by September of this year. No mention of an India retrogression was made.

Vietnam and India’s EB-5 visa usage is significantly lower in comparison to the number of applicants from Mainland China. It’s unclear how it would affect wait times for Vietnamese applicants.

How does a country become backlogged?

The EB-5 Program has an annual cap of 10,000 visas. Due to the fact that the 10,000 includes visas for investors and their families, the real number of visas issued to investors is closer to 3,000 visas. When there are more investors than there are visas available, a country quota is triggered. Each country then receives a maximum of 7% of the total visas available. That results in roughly 700 visas available for investors and their families for each country. If each investor has a spouse and a child (some applicants may not have a spouse and children and some may have more children), then that’s around 233 visas available for investors from each country. When a country’s number of people applying for an EB-5 visa exceeds the number of visas available they face retrogression.

What does this mean for Vietnam and India?

These countries may see a retrogression in the coming months as they approach the 200-300 visa numbers. This year, India recently had a surge in people shifting from H-1B visas to investing in the EB-5 Program. To avoid the possibility of slower wait times due to a backlog in the coming months, investing earlier may be helpful.

READ: H-1B Visa Holders Are Now Applying For EB-5 Here’s Why

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